1. International Spot Quotations (Mid-September 2026)

The global stainless steel market is currently characterized by cost support but weak end-user demand. The traditional peak season fails to meet expectations, with prices fluctuating narrowly with a downward bias. Obvious price gaps exist across regions.

1. China Export FOB (304 2B Cold Rolled Coil): USD 2180–2220/MT. Domestic Wuxi spot price for 304 coil stands at CNY 12800–13700/MT. The recovery of domestic demand in the traditional “Golden September” peak season falls short of expectations. Downstream buyers purchase cautiously, while traders actively destock. Steel mills generally run with slight losses.
2. Southeast Asia / India CIF: USD 2280–2300/MT. Local Indian steel mills have sufficient supply, yet manufacturing orders remain sluggish with quiet import inquiries.
3. Germany, Europe CIF: USD 2310–2330/MT. The EU launches sunset review on anti-dumping duties for cold rolled stainless steel. Trade barriers continuously restrict Asian stainless steel inflows into Europe. Local inventories stay low, bringing notable regional price premiums.
4. USA CIF, North America: USD 2370–2400/MT. Manufacturing demand in the US is moderate, coupled with high tariff and logistics costs, making North America the highest-priced region globally.

Note: Extra processing fees apply for wire mesh, wire rod, bar & pipe products on the basis of coil prices. Grade 316L is priced significantly higher than 304, with a usual premium of USD 400–700/MT.

2. Core Raw Material Costs: Nickel is the key pricing benchmark for stainless steel

Nickel is the biggest variable in stainless steel cost. LME nickel price currently fluctuates within USD 14400–16000/MT, while the main SHFE nickel contract trades around CNY 123600/MT.

1. Supply side: Indonesia, the world’s largest nickel producer, sees production disruption at some smelting parks caused by water shortage in dry season, partially underpinning nickel raw material bottom. However, expectations of relaxed nickel ore quotas keep curbing sharp rallies in nickel prices, leading to fierce long-short games.
2. High-carbon ferrochrome: Prices edge down, reducing its pull on stainless steel costs.

Summary: Nickel and chromium raw materials support the bottom of stainless steel prices, yet insufficient end demand leaves little room for strong price hikes.

3. Global Supply & Demand Landscape

Supply

Global stainless steel capacity is concentrated in China and Indonesia. Relying on nickel resource advantages, Indonesia keeps releasing new capacity and becomes the main source of global stainless steel output growth. Domestic Chinese steel mills cut production schedules to ease oversupply, while overall output remains high.

Demand

1. Traditional sectors: Weak demand from real estate, home appliances and general machinery manufacturing weighs on stainless steel consumption.
2. New growth drivers: Stainless steel demand in energy storage liquid cooling equipment, new energy and photovoltaic facilities grows steadily, though the volume is not enough to offset weakness in traditional industries.
3. Export: Global foreign trade orders are generally sluggish. Overseas buyers hold a wait-and-see attitude and mostly adopt small-batch, on-demand purchasing instead of advance stockpiling.

4. Key Factors Affecting Global Stainless Steel Prices

1. Fed monetary policy & US Dollar: Rebound in US inflation data fuels market rate hike expectations. A stronger US Dollar suppresses commodity prices and caps upside potential for stainless steel.
2. Trade policies: EU anti-dumping sunset reviews, import tariffs and carbon border adjustment mechanisms reshape trade flows and create regional price differentials.
3. Indonesian nickel industry changes: Nickel ore & ferronickel output and export policies in Indonesia determine stainless steel cost trends in the long run.
4. Freight fluctuations: Volatile international ocean freight directly impacts landed costs for FOB and CIF quotations.

5. Market Outlook

Short-term (Sep–Oct): Prices will fluctuate with a weak bias. Cost support limits sharp declines, while dramatic rallies are unlikely. Stainless steel prices may see mild gains only if nickel rises markedly and downstream buyers conduct concentrated restocking. Prices will remain under pressure if overseas manufacturing continues to weaken.

Long-term: Global stainless steel capacity keeps expanding. Demand recovery pace will dictate price trends. New energy and energy storage sectors will serve as core demand growth drivers for stainless steel in the future.

6. Practical Tips for Stainless Steel Export Business

1. Overseas customers tend to bargain aggressively at present. It is recommended to add raw material fluctuation adjustment clauses in quotations to hedge risks from volatile nickel prices.
2. For customers from different regions, quote separately under FOB / CIF terms. Calculate tariffs and anti-dumping surcharges in advance for Europe and North America.
3. For deep-processed small-sized products (stainless steel wire mesh, fine wire, pipe fittings), do not simply reference flat coil prices; processing costs shall be calculated separately.